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Details of talk

TitleControlling waterborne disease: policy and practice insights using impulsive differential equations
PresenterEdward Waters (University of Notre Dame)
Author(s)Dr Edward Waters, Prof Harvinder Sidhu
SessionApplied Mathematics/Industrial Mathematics
Time13:30:00 2016-12-06
Abstract


The dynamics of diseases transmitted through the environment, such as waterborne
and foodborne diseases, are often poorly characterised by ordinary differential
equation models. Diseases transmitted through the environment exhibit rich
dynamics in response to rapid fluctuations in environmental variables such as
rainfall and temperature. Impulsive differential equations (IDEs) can be used to
better approximate the complex dynamics of environmental transmission systems.
Using the waterborne parasite Cryptosporidium as a case study, IDEs are used to
explore the effect of heavy rainfall events on the incidence of infection.
Results from numerical simulations are used to show that guidelines for managing
the risk of Cryptosporidium infection may require updating if, as is argued to
be happening due to climate variability, rainfall patterns change.